Valley Pride Ag > BLOGS/REPORTS
The June 2020 California Almond Industry Position Report was published this morning. Here are some key points from the report:
2019 Crop Receipts to Date: 2547 Million LBS
2019 Total Shipments to Date: 2192 Million LBS (+3.91%)
June Total Shipments: 175 Million LBS (+6.2 %)
• Domestic Shipments: 58.5 Million LBS (+2.4%)
• Export Shipments: 116.8 Million LBS (+8.2%)
Total Commitments: 370 Million LBS (+30.7%)
Net New Sales: 90 Million LBS
2019 Crop Percentage Sold 100%**
2020 Crop Percentage Sold 15.2%**
Various Countries/Regions Month to Month Shipment Change
India (+53%)
China/HK (-56%)
South Korea (+60%)
Japan (-28%)
Western Europe (-1%)
Central & Eastern Europe (+2%)
Middle East (+70%)
**Total commitments are 370M LBS. We do not foresee more than 170M+/- LBS being shipped in July. This would leave 200 M+/- LBS rolling into new crop sales. This number coupled with the current 458M LBS of new crop sales, would bring the new crop sold position to 22%. In order to contrast this at the same time last year New crop Sales not including excess commitments from previous crop was at 9%, so we can all see that lower prices in Almonds is driving the demand.
We know that COVID is a concern right now and it is taking much of top of mind awareness ( TOMA) but the silent majority is buying these incredibly low prices as it is foregone conclusion that when the almond prices drop to 10 years Lows, the prices will eventually rise because of demand increasing to balance the supply. Additional factor impacting prices would be the packing capacity in peak demand i.e. Sept to Nov, which will see growers selling less product as we won’t be able to ship the amount of product which is needed at the current price levels.
Our opinion is that this is a buying opportunity for most customers who want to take advantage of lower cost of goods.
Further the crop is progressing well and we think that the harvest will be a week or two earlier this year.
Please let us know if you have any further questions.
Kind Regards,
The Valley Pride Ag Co Team
The May 2020 California Almond Industry Position Report was published this morning. Here are some key points from the report:
2019 Crop Receipts to Date: 2536 Million LBS
2019 Total Shipments to Date: 2017 Million LBS (+3.72%) May Total Shipments: 153.89 Million LBS (-13.9%) • Domestic Shipments: 57.15 Million LBS (-13.6%) • Export Shipments: 96.74 Million LBS (-14.1%) Total Commitments: 455 Million LBS (+25.76%) Net New Sales: 112 Million LBS
2019 Crop Percentage Sold 93.0%**
2020 Crop Percentage Sold 9.53%**
Various Countries/Regions Month to Month Shipment Change India (+4%) China/HK (-21%) South Korea (-8%) Japan (+8%) Western Europe (+6%) Central & Eastern Europe (+13%) Middle East (+25%)
**Total commitments are 456M LBS. We do not foresee more than 300M+/- LBS being shipped in June & July. This would leave 156M+/- LBS rolling into new crop sales. This number coupled with the current 287M LBS of new crop sales, would bring the new crop sold position to 15%.
California shipped 411 FCL’s to India in May, compared to 565 FCL’s last year. India needs 600+/- containers per month to keep up with regular demand as almonds are ingratiated into various food items which the population consumes. April (197 FCL’s Shipped) & May (411 FCL’s Shipped) is considerably less than what is needed. We expect buying interest to come from India.
Expected carry out for the 2019 crop is 435-450M LBS.
Kind Regards,
The Valley Pride Ag Co Team
This afternoon the California Almond Acreage Report was published. Here are the highlights:
• 2019 Almond Acreage is estimated at 1,530,000 acres.
• 2019 Bearing Acres 1,180,000.
• 2019 Non-Bearing Acres 350,000.
• 2020 Estimated Bearing Acres 1,260,000.
For the 2019 crop – the preliminary yield per acre is 2,161 lbs., assuming the final crop total is 2.55 billion lbs. For the 2020 crop – with an estimated 1.26 million bearing acres, and an estimated yield of 2,238 lbs. per acre, the 2020 crop should be 2,819,000,000+/- lbs. We are still waiting for the USDA subjective estimate which will be published in early May, the “May Drop” & the USDA objective estimate in early July. Rainfall & snowpack this year has been marginal at best, and we will have to see how weather patterns evolve over the next three months. Wishing everyone health & safety during these difficult times.
Sincerely, The Valley Pride Ag Co Team
April Shipment Numbers and 2020 California Almonds Subjective Report April 2020 California Almond Industry Position Report was published this morning. Here are some key points from the report: 2019 Crop Receipts to Date: 2534 Million LBS 2019 Total Shipments: 1863 Million LBS (+5.5%) March Total Shipments: 181 Million LBS (+2.4%) • Domestic Shipments: 77.70 Million LBS (+14.8%) •
Export Shipments: 103.5 Million LBS (-5.3%) Total Commitments: 499 Million LBS (15.14%) Net New Sales: 125 Million LBS 2019 Crop Percentage Sold: 94.4% 2020 Almond Subjective Estimate : 3 Billion Lbs Various Countries/Regions Month to Month Shipment Change India (-52%) China/HK/Vietnam (-32%) South Korea (-2%) Japan (+38%) Western Europe (+7.2%) Central & Eastern Europe (-1%) Middle East (-24%) The Shipment numbers for April were another record for the 5 th Month in a row. This is now 6 record shipment months out of the last 9 months of reports, staring Aug of 2019. We expect Robust Shipment for May, which seems like will be another record for this marketing year. The carryout is Still projected around 400 Million lbs which will be enough for the crop transitioning from 2019 to 2020 but still will be tight for certain grades and sizes.
Major Export markets like India , China, and Middle East all declined in shipments for the month which gives rise to question: Will we be heading for a stock squeeze in June[1]Aug in those markets? It will be very interesting to observe that in conjunction with declining Covid issues worldwide, major economies getting back to normal, and significantly lower prices, will it push demand higher? USDA came out with the California Subjective Estimate for 2020 at 3 Billion Lbs, with 1.26 Million acres at a yield of 2380 lbs per acre.
This production number is possible with the good chill hours, nice bloom and even nicer post bloom weather, there is no doubt that the crop looks very nice in the central and norther parts of the state! At the current prices for the new crop, growers are at best breaking even (state average yield). On the west side which relies on Federal water, this year it will be a disaster with 15% possibly 20% of allocation.
Buying water in that area of the state currently comes with a $900 per acre/foot price tag (with a 4 acre foot requirement for almonds – Yes, do the math on $3,000 acre cultural costs, not counting any debt service). We will see more growers reducing water usage which will certainly hurt the crop in on those acres for next year and pulling older orchards which are in major red ink at these prices.
We suspect even 3,000 per acre yield growers, in good water districts, are dangerously close to being under cost of production. The current mood for selling new crop (Specifically Industrial Grades), is why sell at a loss today when I don’t even know what I have. If I have to sell for a loss I’ll do it when the crop is in the barn. Everyone is still dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic – all of us here at Valley Pride Ag Co wish you and your family safety & health during these troubling times.
Valley Pride Ag Co Team
It was published this morning. Here are some key points from the report:
2019 Crop Receipts to Date: 2533 Million LBS
2019 Total Shipments: 1682 Million LBS (+5.85%)
March Total Shipments: 208.22 Million LBS (+12.6%)
• Domestic Shipments: 79.67 Million LBS (+31.2%)
• Export Shipments: 126.56 Million LBS (+3.5%)
Total Commitments: 555 Million LBS
Net New Sales: 174 Million LBS
2019 Crop Percentage Sold: 90.2%
Various Countries/Regions Month to Month Shipment Change
India (+19%)
China/HK/Vietnam (-10%)
South Korea (-37.3%)
Japan (+1.2%)
Western Europe (-5.45%)
Central & Eastern Europe (-10.5%)
Middle East (+46%)
Balance of the 2019 crop to Sell & Ship is 243 million lbs. over the next 4 months.
Valley Pride Ag Co Team